Outlines of a Mechanical Theory of Storms
T >> T. Bassnett >> Outlines of a Mechanical Theory of Storms+------------------------------------------------------------------+
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| Transcriber's Note |
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| Transliterations: The original book used a number of special |
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| The Greek phrase on the title page has been transliterated. |
| The book also used special symbols for planets, etc; this |
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| e.g. [NEPTUNE]. [VOLCANO] represents an unknown planet, in the |
| original denoted by a right-angled triangle which the author |
| wrote represented a volcano. |
| The degree symbol is here rendered as d. It is hoped that no |
| confusion will result from the author's use of "2d" and "3d" for |
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OUTLINES
OF
A MECHANICAL THEORY OF STORMS,
CONTAINING
THE TRUE LAW OF LUNAR INFLUENCE,
WITH
PRACTICAL INSTRUCTIONS TO THE NAVIGATOR, TO ENABLE
HIM APPROXIMATELY TO CALCULATE THE COMING
CHANGES OF THE WIND AND WEATHER,
FOR ANY GIVEN DAY, AND FOR
ANY PART OF THE OCEAN.
BY T. BASSNETT.
He de mesotes en pasin asphalestera
NEW YORK:
D. APPLETON & COMPANY,
346 & 348 BROADWAY,
AND 16 LITTLE BRITAIN, LONDON.
1854.
Entered, according to Act of Congress, in the year 1853, by
T. BASSNETT,
In the Clerk's Office of the Southern District of New York.
CONTENTS.
SECTION FIRST.
Present State of the Science of Meteorology--Primordial Condition of the
Solar System--Theory of Gravitation the great key of Nature--Bessell's
doubts of its perfect adequacy--the Newtonian Vacuum: its
difficulties--Nature of the element called Ether--The Medium of Space
and the Electric Fluid--Ponderosity of Matter--Dynamical law of
Equilibrium--Specific heat and its relation to space--A Plenum not
opposed to Gravitation--The medium of space in motion--Formation of
Vortices--A new principle developed--Elements of the problem--Hutton's
theory of the production of rain--Indications of change and the
cause--Action of the Ethereal Current--Physical process of Atmospheric
Derangement--Redfield's theory of Storms: its difficulties--All storms
are of brief duration and limited extent. 13
SECTION SECOND.
Mechanical action of the Moon--The Moon's mass--Axis of the Terral
Vortex affected by the Moon: its inclination and position: its
displacement--An example of the principle--Corrections
necessary--Milwaukie storm--New York storm--Ottawa storm--Liverpool
storm--Names and recurring order of the storm-producing agents--Record
of the weather--Second New York storm. 58
SECTION THIRD.
Lunar influence rejected by the learned--Their conclusions not
valid--Modifying causes in accordance with these principles--Years and
seasons vary in character--Superficial temperature of different
Planets--No storms on the planet Mars--Rotation the cause of Ocean and
Atmospheric Currents--Pressure of the atmosphere and its regular and
irregular variations--Terrestrial Magnetism--Internal Constitution of
the Globe--Magnetic variations--Cause of these variations--Magnetic
storms--Aurora Borealis: its altitude--Earthquakes; their possible
connection with Storms. 101
SECTION FOURTH.
The solar spots--Law of periodicity compared with the theory--Existence
of another planet beyond Neptune probable--Masses of the Sun and
Planet yet uncertain--The Law of Gravitation not above
suspicion--Proofs of this--The full of the Moon--Density of the
Ethereal Medium: its law in the Solar Vortex--Bode's law of the
planetary distances--Law of planetary density--Law connecting the
present and former diameters of the planets--Disturbing action of the
Ether--Kepler's third law not rigidly exact--Inconsistencies of
Astronomers--Nature of light and heat--Distinction between light and
heat. 147
SECTION FIFTH.
Comets--Their small inclinations--Their motions chiefly direct--Comet of
1770 and 1844--Cause of acceleration in the case of Encke--Anomalous
motions of the comet of 1843--Change of diameter at different
distances of a comet from the sun--Cause of this change--Nature of the
nebulosity--Formation of the tail--Compound nature of a comet's
light--motion and direction of a comet's tail--Phenomena presented by
the great comet of Halley--Mass of a comet--The Zodial light--Nebulous
stars--Shooting stars--Periodic showers--Periodicity doubtful--Cause
of the apparent periodicity--Cause for being more numerous in Autumn
than in Spring. 187
SECTION SIXTH.
State of the polar ice since 1845--Sir John Franklin's track--Probable
existence of islands north of Behring's Straits--Possibility of
subsisting in the Arctic islands--News from the
Investigator--Necessity of searching in a higher latitude than the
Investigator visited--Franklin's misfortunes due to Scientific
Errors--Relative levels of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans--The Arctic
seas more accessible in a few years--Conclusion. 233
PREFACE.
On presenting to the public a work of this novel character,
overstepping, as it does, the barriers erected by modern systems to the
further progress of knowledge, a few words of explanation may not be
inappropriate. Early imbued with a desire to understand the _causes_ of
natural phenomena, the author devoured with avidity the interpretations
contained in the elementary works of orthodox science, until reason and
observation rendered him dissatisfied with the repast. To him it
appeared that there was an evident tendency in scholastic instruction,
to make the knowledge of nature inaccessible to the many, that the world
might be made more dependent on the few; while many of the _established
principles_, on which the learned rested, seemed to be at variance with
the simplicity and consistency of truth. Thus situated, he ventured to
think for himself, and looking back on the history of the past, and
finding so many cases in which the philosophy of to-day was supplanted
by a different system on the morrow, he was led to suspect the
possibility of future revolutions, and was thus determined to be no
longer embarrassed by previous systems, nor deterred by opinions
however learned, which conflicted with a rational recognition of the
mechanical nature of all physical phenomena.
The science of meteorology, to which the following pages are devoted,
is, and always has been, a confessedly complex subject; and on this
account, any suggestions and facts which observation gleans,--no matter
how humble the source may be, should not be denied a hearing by those
professedly engaged in the pursuit of truth. Step by step, the author
became more and more confirmed in his doubts of the soundness of many
modern theories; and in 1838 he had attained a position which enabled
him to allege in the public prints of the day, that there did exist
certain erroneous dogmas in the schools, which stood in the way of a
fuller development of the causes of many meteorological phenomena. This
annunciation was made in general terms, and no notice was taken of it.
Subsequently, he forwarded to the British Association of Science, then
convened at Birmingham, a communication of similar tenor; and at a later
date still, a more particular statement of the advantages of his
discoveries to the navigator and agriculturist, was sent to the British
admiralty. The first of these communications was treated with silent
contempt; the last elicited some unimportant reply. In 1844 a memorial
was presented to Congress, accompanied with a certified copy of
_predictions_ of the weather, written several weeks before the event,
and attested in due form by two impartial witnesses; but neither did
this result in any inquiry as to its truth. During the time since
elapsed, he has been engaged in pursuits which prevented him from
pressing the subject elsewhere, until the spring of 1853, he brought
his theory under the notice of the Smithsonian Institution. This led to
a correspondence between himself and the gentlemanly Secretary of the
Institution, whose doubts of the truth of his allegations were expressed
with kindness, and whose courtesy was in strange contrast with the
conduct of others. In the communications which he forwarded to that
Institution, he gave a detailed statement of the difficulties he had met
with, and expressed the hope that an Institution, created for the
purpose of increasing and diffusing knowledge, would feel justified in
lending the influence of its name to facilitate the completion of a
theory which was yet undeniably imperfect. In view of this, a test was
proposed.[1] "Give us, for example, a prediction of the weather for one
month in each season of the year 1854, for the City of Washington." This
test the author refused, for the reason that he did not consider it
necessary to wait so long; but he informed the Secretary of the
Institution, that he would prepare an outline of his theory, which would
enable him to decide upon the merits of the discoveries claimed. This
outline is contained in the following pages. During the summer of 1853
he called upon Professor Henry, then at Chicago, with his manuscript;
but a sudden indisposition prevented that gentleman from having it read.
He, however, strongly recommended its publication from such impressions
he then received.[2] This the author had resolved on, from a sense of
duty to the world at large, although the promise was rather of
prospective loss than of present benefit. The peculiar form under which
the theory appears, is, therefore, a result of the circumstances above
stated, and of the author's present inability to enter into the minute
details of a subject, which embraces in its range the whole visible
creation.
In extending the theory to other phenomena, he has only fearlessly
followed out the same principles which have conducted him to a knowledge
of a disturbing cause, to which atmospheric storms owe their origin, and
in doing so he has conferred with no one. For whatever of merit or of
blame may therefore justly attach to these views, he alone is
responsible. If he has charged the scientific with inconsistency, or
with sometimes forgetting that the truth of their unnecessarily abstruse
investigations depends on the truth of the data, he at least is
conscientious; for he is too well aware that to provoke an unfavorable
verdict by contending against such fearful odds, is not the surest way
to either wealth or fame, or even to an acknowledgment of at least _the
mite_, which he cannot but feel that he has contributed to the treasury
of knowledge. That the scientific organisations of the day do tend to
curb the aberrations of a fanciful philosophy, cannot be denied; but at
the same time there is engendered such a slavish subordination as checks
the originality of thought, and destroys that perfect freedom from the
trammels of system, so necessary to success in the pursuit of truth. Of
such an influence the author explicitly asserts his entire independence.
In thus introducing his theory, the reader is forewarned that he will
not find it dressed in the fascinating garb of the popular literature of
the day, whose chief characteristic is to promise much when possessing
little. It is, however, a plant of the author's own raising, unpropped,
unpruned, with none of the delicate tendrils or graceful festoons of the
trellissed vine; yet he flatters himself that its roots are watered by
the springs of truth, and hopes that he who is in quest of _that_, will
not find, amidst its many clusters, any fruit to set his teeth on
edge.
FOOTNOTES:
[1] Extract from a letter from Professor Henry.
[2] This gentleman kindly offered to contribute from his own private
means, to forward the publication, but he could do nothing officially
without submitting the manuscript to three different censors. He who
claims a new discovery, will seldom be satisfied to have it judged by
men who are engaged in the same investigations, however pure and
honorable they may be. Is this Institution adopting the best plan of
aiding truth, in its struggles against error? Should any man sit as
judge in his own trial? If there had been a powerful Institution to
stand between Galileo and the scientific of his day, his doctrines would
not have been condemned, and the world would have been fifty years more
in advance.
MECHANICAL THEORY OF STORMS.
SECTION FIRST.
PRESENT STATE OF METEOROLOGY.
The present state of the science of which we are about to treat, cannot
be better defined than in the words of the celebrated Humboldt, who has
devoted a long life to the investigation of this department of Physics.
He says: "The processes of the absorption of light, the liberation of
heat, and the variations in the elastic and electric tension, and in the
hygrometric condition of the vast aerial ocean, are all so intimately
connected together, that each individual meteorological process is
modified by the action of all the others. The complicated nature of
these disturbing causes, increases the difficulty of giving a full
explanation of these involved meteorological phenomena; and likewise
limits, or _wholly precludes_ the possibility of that predetermination
of atmospheric changes, which would be so important for horticulture,
agriculture, and navigation, no less than for the comfort and enjoyment
of life. Those who place the value of meteorology in this problematic
species of prediction, rather than in the knowledge of the phenomena
themselves, are firmly convinced that this branch of science, on account
of which so many expeditions to distant mountainous regions have been
undertaken, has not made any very considerable progress for centuries
past. The confidence which they refuse to the physicist they yield to
changes of the moon, and to certain days marked in the calender by the
superstition of a by-gone age."
The charge thus skilfully repelled, contains, however, much truth; there
has been no adequate return of the vast amount of labor and expense thus
far devoted to this branch of knowledge. And it is not wonderful that
the popular mind should expect a result which is so much in accordance
with the wants of mankind. Who is there whose happiness, and health, and
comfort, _and_ safety, and prosperity, may not be more or less affected
by reducing to law, the apparently irregular fluctuations of the
weather, and the predetermination of the storm? To do this would be the
crowning triumph of the age; and the present theory has pioneered the
way for its speedy accomplishment.
ORIGINAL CONDITION OF THE EARTH.
That the present order of things had a beginning, is taught by every
analogy around us, and as we have the glaring fact forced upon us, that
our globe has experienced a far higher temperature on its surface than
obtains at present, and moreover, as it is demonstrated beyond a cavil,
that the interior is now of far higher temperature than is due to solar
radiation, we are justified in concluding, not only that the condition
of the interior of our globe is that of fusion, but that its original
temperature was far higher than at present; so that the inference is
allowable that there has been a time when the whole globe was _perhaps_
in this state. But why should we stop here? There are three states of
matter, the solid, the fluid, and the gaseous; and with this passing
glance at the question, we will jump at once to the theory of La
Place,--that not only our own globe, but the whole solar system, has
been once in the nebulous state.
In justice to himself, the author ought to remark, that he had reasoned
his way up to this starting point, before even the name of La Place had
reached his ears. He makes the remark in order to disclaim any desire to
appropriate that which belongs to another; as he may innocently speak of
things hereafter, the idea of which has occurred to others. It is not
his intention here to say a word _pro_ or _con_ on the nebular
hypothesis; it is sufficient to allude to the facts, that the direction
of rotation and of revolution is the same for all the planets and
satellites of our system; and that the planes on which these motions are
performed, are nearly coincident. That this concordance is due to one
common cause, no one acquainted with the theory of probabilities will
pretend to deny.
GREAT OBJECT OF LA PLACE.
The science of Astronomy occupies a pre-eminent rank in the physical
circle, not only on account of that dignity conferred upon it in the
most remote antiquity, or as being the grand starting point--the
earliest born of science--from whence we must contemplate the visible
creation, if we would reduce its numerous details into one harmonious
whole; but also on account of its practical fruits, of the value of
which modern commerce is an instance. Accordingly we will glance at its
past history. In the earliest ages there was no doubt a rational view
entertained of the movements of the planets in space. From the Chaldeans
to the Arabs, a belief prevailed, that space was filled with a pure
ethereal fluid, whose existence probably did not rest on any more solid
foundation than analogy or tradition. One hundred years after Copernicus
had given to the world the true arrangements of our planetary system,
Descartes advanced his theory of vortices in the ethereal medium, in
which the planets were borne in orbits around the sun, and the
satellites around their primaries. This idea retained its ground with
various additions, until the Geometry of Newton reconciled the laws of
Kepler with the existence of a power pertaining to matter, varying
inversely as the squares of the distances, to which power he showed the
weight of terrestrial bodies was owing, and also the revolution of
the moon about the earth. Since Newton's day, those deviations from the
strict wording of Kepler's laws, have been referred to the same law,
and the avowed object of the author of the "Mechanique Celeste," was to
bring all the great phenomena of nature within the grasp of analysis, by
referring them to one single principle, and one simple law. And in his
Introduction to the Theory of the Moon, he remarks: "Hence it
incontestibly follows, that the law of gravitation is the sole cause of
the lunar inequalities."
BESSEL'S OPINION.
However beautiful the conception, it must be admitted that in its _a
priori_ aspect, it was not in accordance with human experience and
analogy to anticipate a successful issue. In nature law re-acts upon
law, and change induces change, through an almost endless chain of
consequences; and it might be asked, why a simple law of matter should
thus be exempt from the common lot? Why, in a word, there should be no
intrinsic difference in matter, by which the gravitation of similar or
dissimilar substances should be affected? But experiment has detected no
such differences; a globe of lead and a globe of wood, of equal weight,
attract contiguous bodies with equal force. It is evident, therefore,
that if there be such differences, human means are not yet refined
enough to detect them. Was the issue successful then? Generally
speaking, we may say yes. But where there is a discrepancy between
theory and observation, however small that may be, it shows there is
still something wanting; and a high authority (Professor Bessel) says in
relation to this: "But I think that the certainty that the theory based
upon this law, _perfectly_ explains all the observations, is not
correctly inferred." We will not here enumerate the cases to which
suspicion might be directed, neither will we more than just allude to
the fact, that the Theory of Newton requires a vacuum, in order that the
planetary motions may be mathematically exact, and permanent in their
stability.
A VACUUM REQUIRED BY MODERN SYSTEMS.
Whatever may be the practical belief of the learned, their fundamental
principles forbid the avowal of a plenum, although the undulatory theory
of light renders a plenum necessary, and is so far virtually recognized
by them, and a correction for resistance is applied to the Comet of
Encke. Yet there has been no attempt made to reconcile these opposing
principles, other than by supposing that the celestial regions are
filled with an extremely rare and elastic fluid. That no definite view
has been agreed on, is not denied, and Sir John Herschel speculates on
the reality of a resisting medium, by suggesting questions that will
ultimately have to be considered, as: "What is the law of density of the
resisting medium which _surrounds_ the sun? Is it in rest or in motion?
If the latter, in what direction does it move?" In these queries he
still clings to the idea of Encke, that the resistance is confined to
the neighborhood of the sun and planets, like a ponderable fluid. But
the most profound analyst the world has ever boasted, speaks less
cautiously, (Poisson Rech.) "It is difficult to attribute, as is usually
done, the incandescence of aerolites to friction against the molecules
of the atmosphere, at an elevation above the earth where the density of
the air is almost null. May we not suppose that the electric fluid, in a
neutral condition, forms a kind of atmosphere, extending far beyond the
mass of our atmosphere, yet _subject to terrestrial attraction_, yet
_physically imponderable_, and, consequently, following our globe in its
motion?" The incandescence of aerolites must, therefore, be owing to
friction against the molecules of the electric fluid which forms an
atmosphere around the globe. According to this view, some force keeps it
there, yet it is not ponderable. As it is of limited extent, this is not
the medium whose undulations brings to light the existence of the stars;
neither is Encke's, nor Herschel's, nor any other resisting medium.
Where shall we find the present established principles of science? If we
grant the Newtonians a plenum, they still cling to attraction of _all
matter_ in some shape. If we confine them to a vacuum, they will
virtually deny it. Is not this solemn trifling? How much more noble
would it be to exhibit a little more tolerance, seeing that they
themselves know not what to believe? We do not offer these remarks as
argument, but merely as indications of that course of reasoning by which
we conclude that the upholders of the present systems of science are not
entitled to any other ground than the pure Newtonian basis of an
interplanetary vacuum.
DIFFICULTIES OF THIS VIEW.
This, then, is the state of the case: Matter attracts matter directly as
the mass, and inversely as the squares of the distances. This law is
derived from the planetary motions; space is, consequently, a void; and,
therefore, the power which gives mechanical momentum to matter, is
transferred from one end of creation to the other, without any physical
medium to convey the impulse. At the present day the doctrines of
Descartes are considered absurd; yet here is an absurdity of a far
deeper dye, without we resort to the miraculous, which at once
obliterates the connection between cause and effect, which it is the
peculiar province of physical science to develop. Let us take another
view. The present doctrine of light teaches that light is an undulation
of an elastic medium necessarily filling all space; and this branch of
science probably rests on higher and surer grounds than any other. Every
test applied to it by the refinements of modern skill, strengthens its
claims. Here then the Newtonian vacuum is no longer a void. If we get
over this difficulty, by attributing to this medium a degree of tenuity
almost spiritual, we shall run upon Scylla while endeavoring to shun
Charybdis. Light and heat come bound together from the sun, by the same
path, and with the same velocity. Heat is therefore due also to an
excitement of this attenuated medium. Yet this heat puts our atmosphere
in motion, impels onward the waves of the sea, wafts our ships to
distant climes, grinds our corn, and in various ways does the work of
man. If we expose a mass of metal to the sun's rays for a single hour
the temperature will be raised. To do the same by an artificial fire,
would consume fuel, and this fuel would generate the strength or force
of a horse. Estimate, therefore, the amount of force received from the
sun in a single day for the whole globe, and we shall find that nothing
but a material medium will suffice to convey this force.